Evaluating surprising results

Of all the surprising match results - and in this article, we'll be discussing "outcomes" (like a win or a draw) as opposed to results with a specific scoreline - some can be deemed more surprising than others. 

If we were to calculate how much of a surprise a given match outcome could represent, we'll have to come up with a set of criteria.

Let's say we want to come up with a value representing the "surprise-level" of a particular outcome. To calculate such value, we'll be taking into account the same type of indicators covered in other articles in this blog related to team performance evaluation: home and away Points Per Game (PPG).

The goal is not to obtain a value that would absolutely define with a number what we call a "surprise", as a "surprise" is also mainly a feeling and will always be subjective to some degree.

To a fan of the winning team, the "surprising" outcome may represent less of a surprise than to a fan of the high-profile team that just got defeated. 

The idea is to compare matches with each other, so that we can calculate values by which we could say something like: "According to these criteria, the outcome of this match is more surprising than the outcome of that match."